Minority Rule

Tuesday is primary election day in Texas. This is the election of consequence here, yet fewer than 4 million people are expected to cast a ballot. That means that our state-wide leadership will be selected by about 3% of the population. Let that sink in for a minute as you decide whether you want to participate in the primary. November is largely ceremonial in most statewide races. Tuesday is when it’s decided. Vote now!

The political views of the vast majority of the population of Texas are significantly more moderate than those of the politicians who represent us and the policies they enact. The state is run by ideological extremists who enact extremist policies because of the way we select candidates.

Texas is a Republican state. We haven’t elected a Democrat to statewide office in over 30 years. That makes the Republican primary the election of consequence in Texas, and the people who vote in the primary are hard-core partisans. They are disproportionately old, white, affluent, and rural. The rest of the population lives with the consequences of the candidates that they pick. Here is a graphic of how those numbers breakdown:

When one million voters determine who governs 32 million people, the incentive structure becomes distorted.

Greg Abbott and Dan Patrick do not have to appeal to you and they don’t even try. They only have to get about one out of every thirty-two Texans to vote for them in the primary and they are assured to be reelected. This is how candidates who struggle to win broad statewide support can nevertheless win primaries and then coast to victory in November. The people of Texas are not radical, yet we are reputationally defined by the extreme right wing of the Republican Party.

This same process plays out in down-ballot races where gerrymandering creates safe seats for both parties. The most extreme candidates win the primary and go on to win the general election. So, if you want a say in who represents you, the primary is the time to vote.  

The shifting demographic makeup of Texas will not solve this problem. I believe that structural reforms are required to mitigate the power of the most extreme elements of the electorate. If we want different outcomes, we must change the incentives. One solution is to shift to nonpartisan “top two” primaries that force all candidates to compete on the same ballot, with the two top vote-getters advancing to the general election regardless of party affiliation. Where this has been tried, more moderate candidates tend to prevail.

In the meantime, if we want leaders who reflect the character of Texas – pragmatic, moderate, independent, and bigger than party labels – the primary is where it starts. If more people showed up in the primaries, our politics would moderate overnight. Until we reform the system, participation is the only tool we have. Please go vote.